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Which stars stick around at the U.S. Open? And which fade?

A golfer in a blue shirt and white cap squats on the green, focusing on his U.S. Open putt. Tall grass forms the backdrop, and a Tour Confidential logo appears in the top right corner as this star sticks around for his shot.

Wyndham Clark leads at six under after Thursday at Shinnecock.

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Check in to GOLF’s Tour Confidential every Sunday night for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport. This week, with the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, we’ll hit one key topic each night.

A ton of stars are atop the leaderboard after one day at the U.S. Open, although 50 players still have some holes remaining to complete their first round. Wyndham Clark leads at six under (thru 16), while marquee names like Matt Fitzpatrick, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland and Jon Rahm are all two under, and Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg at one under. Who are you most confident sticks around (among these players or others), and who do you think doesn’t?

Josh Berhow, managing editor (@Josh Berhow): Matt Fitzpatrick started slowly but isn’t going anywhere. He’s hit a bunch of greens so far (12 of 16) and is putting well, and he’s a guy who is favored under tough, U.S. Open conditions. On the other hand, I don’t think DJ will stick around. He made a messy double bogey on his last hole before the horn blew, and he just hasn’t contended in a major in a while. It would make for a much better tournament if he were in the mix, but recent results haven’t given me much optimism.

Sean Zak, senior writer (@sean_zak): People may not love to hear it, but the last time Wyndham Clark’s form was this good was … the summer of 2023, when he won the U.S. Open. I think he’ll ball-strike his way around Shinny and stay in contention. It’s just a matter of how hot that putter can stay when these green speeds increase across the weekend.

Nick Piastowski, senior editor (@nickpia): Clark. He’s found something — win last month at the Byron Nelson, third earlier this month at the Memorial, a tie for 11th last week at the Canadian Open. Six-under here is seriously good golf, and I don’t see that disappearing. As for who fades, I imagine everyone will say Ryder Cowan, the 21-year-old amateur — but I like dude’s personality, and I hope we see a bit more.   

Josh Sens, senior writer (@joshsens): I see all of those players sticking around other than DJ, who will fade when he remembers that he’d rather be sunbathing on his yacht. I like Henley to stay around as well—straight hitter, great putter — and it’s not going out on a limb to say that Scheffler will put himself in the mix.

Zephyr Melton, associate game-improvement editor (@zephyrmelton): As much as I would love to see DJ stick around, I just don’t see him sustaining this pace over four rounds. He hasn’t top-10’d in a major since 2023, and he hasn’t won on LIV in over two years. As for who sticks around: I don’t think Rory, Rahm or Fitz are going anywhere. Even if the conditions get tough, those guys are battle-tested enough to stay in the mix.

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