Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 Tour Championship, which gets underway Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both free-to-play and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.
Playoffs and golf are a tough marriage. I really like what we currently have on Tour for the first two rounds: the top 70 players at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, then whittling down to the top 50 players at a rotating venue for Round 2. But unfortunately, the finale — the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga. — has always felt a bit anti-climactic.
It is very difficult to reward players for their accomplishments throughout the season and then build that into the final event. The starting strokes format made sense in theory but did not play out to anyone’s liking and fortunately, it has been scrapped for this season’s edition. When we have reached this point of the top 30 players in the field, match play makes sense to me, with those players ranking atop the FedEx Cup points list receiving a bye for the first day or two. This would increase the chances of having a Scottie, Rory, Morikawa, Aberg, etc. involved late in the tournament with all of the marbles on the line, keeping the viewership engaged. Who knows? As I said, it is a difficult marriage.
One thing is for sure in 2025. Every player in this no-cut, 30-player field has a legitimate chance to win the Tour Championship and for whomever that is, they also earn the crown of FedEx Cup Champion and the $10 million prize.
East Lake Golf Club is a Donald Ross design that has been tweaked more than a few times. Most recently, Andrew Green performed a massive overhaul in 2023. Greens, fairways, bunkers… everything was adjusted, and what we have now is a par-70 golf course that stretches to nearly 7,500 yards where accuracy off the tee trumps distance. The largest indicator of success over the past handful of years at East Lake has been Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. I looked at this along with Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass), and Strokes Gained: Par 4s this week. I used Good Drives Gained, Hole Proximity from 200+ yards, Scrambling, and specifically Par 4 success on those measuring 450-500 yards.
I do believe the correlated courses this week provide a strong connection. My top four used were Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship), TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship), and Royal Troon, most recently the host of the 2024 Open Championship.
Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)
The man that is still in search of his first PGA Tour victory notched his sixth top-5 finish of the season last week at the BMW Championship, his second in a row of the postseason. Speaking of top 5, he basically ranks as such in every statistical category I figured as important for this golf course. There is not much convincing left to do. We know Fleetwood is a world-class player who has won several times everywhere except America. We don’t like to wager on storylines but it sure would be a grand stage for Fleetwood to get that elusive first win this week in Georgia.
Russell Henley (20-1)
A Georgia Bulldog, Henley has five career Tour wins and one earlier this season in a Signature Event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His last six starts have been playoff, Signature, and major championship events. His results have been 15-17-10-2-10-5. For me, Henley and Fleetwood rank second in the stats this week, only trailing guess who? While I am okay laying a big price on Scheffler in live wagering, if he is at or near the lead going into Sunday’s final round, I don’t want to bet him at less than 2-1 with four rounds of golf left to play. In my mind, Henley and Fleetwood are quite possibly Scheffler’s biggest threats this week at this golf course.
J.J. Spaun (35-1)
And so is the reigning U.S. Open champion, who has been runner-up three times this season, including at TPC Sawgrass and at TPC Southwind two weeks ago. Spaun also finished 3rd at the Wyndham Championship last year. Over the last 24-rounds, Spaun ranks sixth in this field for SG: Tee to Green. Fleetwood is fourth and Henley is fifth. Spaun ranks ninth in this field for SG: Par 4s. Fleetwood is fifth and Henley is sixth.
It feels like 29 against one this week — and I’m going to ride with these three of the 29 as we close the book on the 2025 PGA Tour season.
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