Welcome to our PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the weekend at the 2026 U.S. Open.
We are two rounds of golf closer to Championship Sunday at the 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills and thankfully, the biggest story is not the suspect conditions of the golf course, as we have seen the past two times this major championship has been staged in Southampton, N.Y.
In our preview article earlier this week, we spoke about the USGA needing to be able to cooperate with Mother Nature. The greens have been kept a bit slower, intentionally, and are also receiving intermittent misting of water to keep them from drying out completely and becoming unplayable. We noted the fairways being set up on the wider side, to give the USGA some wiggle-room as they let them get firmer and faster over the weekend. So far, in my eyes, I feel that everything is going along very well. We are getting an especially good test of golf that is remarkably demanding, as a U.S. Open should be, and I believe it will only get more difficult over the final 36 holes.
The only outlier, it seems, is Wyndham Clark who is hitting his irons beautifully, and for two rounds, has been carrying a red-hot putter. The 2023 U.S. Open champion is out to a four-shot lead at the halfway point at seven under par. The 2022 U.S. Open champion, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sam Stevens, Tom Kim, and Xander Schauffele are all tied for second at three under. Collin Morikawa is at two under. Sam Burns and Justin Thomas are six back at one under par and Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both even par for the championship. The last two U.S. Open champions, J.J. Spaun and Bryson DeChambeau, missed the cut, which fell at four over par.
Five of our seven pre-tournament selections to win the U.S. Open have advanced to the weekend. Patrick Reed was one of the most popular picks of the week, having finished fourth here in 2018 and being top 12 at both the Masters and PGA Championship earlier this season. He missed the cut by one shot, and our long-shot pick of Daniel Berger never really came close, with a 10-over-par trunk-slammer.
So where do we go from here? We are already on both Schauffele and Fitzpatrick. Tommy Fleetwood may still not be out of it at one over, and Kurt Kitayama got himself back into contention today with a round of 68, so he’s now at two over for the championship.
Here are a few plays I would consider making heading into Moving Day at Shinnecock.
Top-10 Finish
Sam Burns (+145)
A major championship seems to be in Burns’ future and maybe it will be this week. He threatened at Oakmont last summer, finishing seventh, and was seventh again this year at the Masters. He was fourth just three weeks ago at the Memorial. Burns is gaining almost two strokes on the field on approach and he’s nearly gaining a full stroke with the putter. The putter has certainly been a weapon for Burns throughout his career and I would not be surprised to see his current steady putting get even better. When identifying correlated golf courses earlier this week that could point to signs of success at Shinnecock, we mentioned Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) and Innisbrook (Valspar Championship). Burns won at Colonial in 2022 and won the Valspar in back-to-back seasons.
Maverick McNealy (+270)
McNealy followed up a round of 72 on Thursday with a 68 on Friday to sit at even heading into the weekend and in a tie for 11th place. He is gaining strokes everywhere but most notably, tee to green, where he currently ranks 18th in this field. I also like the fact that his putter has basically been neutral, gaining just a shade less than half a stroke on the field. For me, this means his putter has plenty of room to heat up over the next two days, and McNealy is an excellent putter — who, by the way, grew up on Poa Annua greens on Pebble Beach and has contended at other California courses with similar putting surfaces to Shinnecock, at Torrey Pines and at Silverado. I believe his tee-to-green game will remain constant and I feel there is a good chance his putting improves. A top-10 finish seems well within his reach.
If you tailed some of our pre-tournament selections and are already on Schauffele and Fitzpatrick, I say sit tight. If not, I prefer Fitzpatrick to Schauffele at this point if you are looking to jump in. Schauffele has been a U.S. Open machine and I am not surprised to see what he’s up to again, but much of his success so far has been tied to the putter. The rest of his game needs to improve a bit if he is going to add a third major championship to his resume.
Matt Fitzpatrick (7-1)
I really like the way the Englishman is going through the first two days. He ranks sixth in this field for SG: Approach and is seventh for SG: Tee To Green. He is also gaining nearly a stroke and a half on the field both around the green and with the putter. Everything is going along very well for Fitzpatrick but nothing is so far out of whack that we could envision some regression. He’s going along very steadily. He is coming off a runner-up finish last week in Canada and has three wins already this season. I think he is a solid bet to capture his second U.S. Open championship.
