Tour Confidential: Is this Nelly Korda’s U.S. Women’s Open moment?

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, our writers look ahead to the U.S. Women’s Open and discuss the most important parts of the PGA Tour’s long-term schedule.

The 81st U.S. Women’s Open kicks off Thursday at Riviera with lots of intrigue surrounding the championship. It’s the first time the tournament has been held at the historic Los Angeles course, and the top player, Nelly Korda, enters playing some of the best golf of her career. Is this the best chance she’s ever had to win a U.S. Women’s Open?

Josh Berhow, managing editor (@Josh_Berhow): She might have had more pressure on her at the 2024 U.S. Women’s Open, since she entered it coming off a victory that was a part of a stretch that included six wins in seven starts. But she somehow shot 80 and missed the cut — and then missed cuts in her next two tournaments. Although this season is starting to look a lot like that dominance we saw two years ago, where she won seven times in 16 starts. In seven events this year she’s won three and finished as the runner-up three other times. Her last start she tied for 8th, which is her worst of the season! She’s more consistent this season, and plus, that 2024 U.S. Women’s Open disaster can now be chalked up to a learning experience. That could help her this week. I also think Riviera suits her game well.

Zephyr Melton, associate game-improvement editor (@zephyrmelton): It’s pretty wild that Nelly doesn’t have a USWO title to her name at this point in her career. With her length and ball-striking prowess, the sorts of setups the USGA likes to present should play right into her hands. She’ll certainly be the favorite to hoist the trophy Sunday night, but the mental battle will be as difficult as the physical one. With how she’s playing this year, it would be surprising if she isn’t the winner, but as we saw at Lancaster in 2024, anything can happen.

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Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable): Thing is, she has been so much more dominant this year than in 2024. Her strokes gained in ’24: 2.86. This year through seven starts: 4.03! A nearly 1.2-shot differential! Stunning stuff. She’s also 10 yards longer off the tee than she was two years ago. Her only bugaboo, relatively speaking, is her putting. If she can find a way to get hot on the greens at Riv, this thing could be over in a hurry.

While Korda’s quest for her fourth major title will be the big talker, there are plenty of other good storylines at the U.S. Women’s Open. What’s one of your favorites?

Berhow: Whether it’s top-ranked Kiara Romero, defending Augusta National Women’s Amateur champ Maria Jose Marin or Stanford’s Paula Martin Sampedro, who just helped her team win a NCAA title last week, there’s a ton of really good amateurs who have promising pro careers teeing it up this week. I’m curious to see if any can contend on the weekend.

Melton: Seeing if Jeeno Thitikul can finally rid herself of the best-player-without-a-major moniker. She’s been close many times before, but winning the first one is always the hardest. She’s in fine form with a win at the Mizuho earlier this month, but major championship golf is a whole different animal.

Bastable: Yes, Jeeno Watch always fully on in these big weeks. I’m also intrigued by Julia Lopez Ramirez, the second-year player from Spain who is the LPGA’s longest hitter (291-yard driving average) and 10th in greens in reg, and who finished top 20 at the USWO as a rookie last year. I don’t see her contending — her short game and putting just isn’t there — but if you’re lucky enough to be on-site, she’d be great fun to follow.

What’s the more likely scenario come Sunday — Korda lifts the U.S. Women’s Open trophy for the first time, or Scottie Scheffler three-peats as champion at the Memorial? (The last time someone won the same event three years in a row, by the way, was when Steve Stricker won the John Deere in 2009, 2010 and 2011.)

Berhow: This actually is a tough one. Scottie Scheffler is definitely due — third or better in four of his last five starts — and besides his two wins at Muirfield Village he’s also finished third twice. But I really like Nelly Korda to pick up the biggest win of her LPGA career this week.

Melton: I’ll go with Scottie. He’s been close too many times this season to be stuck on one win. I like him to get it done at Jack’s place.

Bastable: Scottie who? Our guy hasn’t won in — gasp! — 10 starts. Gimme Korda, for all the reasons we laid out above. I truly believe if she can find a rhythm with her putting, this could be a transcendent week for her on one of golf’s greatest stages.  

Scheffler will have stiff competition at the Memorial, which includes Rory McIlroy. Oddly enough, this will be the first Signature Event Scheffler and McIlroy have both played since the Arnold Palmer Invitational three months ago. Forget bigger fields and bigger markets and relegation highlighting a potential two-track PGA Tour schedule coming in 2028, is this the best example of why the Tour schedule might need a major overhaul?

Berhow: Yes, but I also think the Tour knows that. There is too much golf. And even with the two-track system, there will still be too much golf. But if we can have the very best players compete in the same events 20 times a year or so — and have them actually all show up — it’s a win. But more importantly, it has to stick. The Tour schedule needs stability for people to know what’s coming instead of the constant tweaks. Is this a Signature Event? A Florida Swing shakeup? The playoffs format changing again? When it comes to the schedule, the PGA Tour’s continued evolution, while at times necessary, has also been somewhat of an own-goal. It’s hard to keep up.

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Melton: I agree with all points raised by Josh. We need to see the stars together more often, but we also can’t oversaturate. It sounds like Brian Rolapp knows this — but crafting a schedule that toes that line correctly won’t be easy.

Bastable: Of greater concern to me than having every star in every marquee event is reinstituting cuts in all of them (so we get some mid-tourney drama) and expanding the fields (so we get some more underdog stories). I like the idea of relegation, but if the A flight is too exclusive, it could start to feel stale.   

The Stanford women’s golf team won its third NCAA title in five years last week, and now it’s the men’s teams’ turn at the NCAA Championship at Omni La Costa, which is taking place now and finishes next week. One name to watch is Jackson Koivun, the Auburn junior who has won six of his last nine starts and could turn pro this summer. For those uninformed, what makes Koivun one of the best pro prospects we’ve seen in years?

Berhow: Koivun seems to be the real deal. Six wins in nine starts?! That’s hard to do at any level. Plus he’s already flashed in PGA Tour starts. His coach raves about him, and lofty expectations like that wouldn’t be put on someone if they couldn’t handle them. He’s already in the U.S. Open (but has to remain amateur to keep his spot) but he could turn pro after that. He’s a name golf fans should know.

Melton: I can’t say that I watch a ton of collegiate golf, but it seems like Koivun has that “it” factor. However, dominating the pros and dominating in college are two different things. We’ve seen plenty of “can’t-miss” prospects this decade that have faltered early on (Gordon Sargent, Luke Clanton, etc.), so for now, I’m in wait-and-see mode.

Bastable: Wait and see?! We already have seen, Melton! In seven PGA Tour starts last year, Koivun racked up four top-11 finishes, and in his last three of those starts went T6-T5-T4. Then he went back to little old Auburn, where all he did was post a 67.9 (!) scoring average this season. I’d say the kid is destined for big things.