Who does a ‘burnt out’ Royal Birkdale favor at Open Championship?

Check in to GOLF’s Tour Confidential every Sunday night for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport. This week, with the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, we’ll hit one key topic each night.

The 154th Open Championship begins on Thursday, although this version of Royal Birkdale looks much different (read: browner) than the 2017 edition here. Rory McIlroy called the conditions “burnt out” and players are expecting a course where the ball rolls forever with little rain in the forecast. Who do these conditions favor?

Josh Schrock, associate news editor (@schrock_and_awe): As Rory noted Tuesday, it’s going to favor the more technically skilled golfers who know when to lay back and how far and when to push it up and have a wedge in. There will be about nine or 10 holes where golfers will have a choice between laying back or taking on bunkers and doglegs and pushing it closer. The golfers who are able to be disciplined in their process, control their spin and have control of their irons. That generally sounds like Scottie Scheffler (shock, horror), but he’s not at his best right now, so I’ll go elsewhere, although I expect him to play well. Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood are highly technical golfers whose games this setup suits. Same with Rory McIlroy. On the flip side, it feels like another short week for Bryson, who is one missed cut away from going 4-for-4.

Josh Berhow, managing editor (@Josh_Berhow): The thinkers and the strong-willed, since you are bound to get some unlucky breaks at Open Championships, and maybe even more so now since balls might run forever and figuring out the proper clubs might take some time. The players talked a lot about the strategy off the tee; avoiding the fairway bunkers will be crucial. It’s going to be really interesting to see how players handle the conditions the first couple of days and what they learn from watching the broadcast/others. I like to think guys like Aaron Rai and Russell Henley and Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood (super accurate off the tee) are in a good spot, but Rory also talked about just taking driver and going over all the trouble and figuring it out from there, so there’s more than one way to play this course.

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Jake Morrow, gear content manager (@madefortherange): Might be a hot take but I don’t think the technical guy wins this week. I think the guys who like to have a bit more fun are going to see some more success. When conditions get tough, unpredictable or silly, it’s guys like Justin Thomas, Max Homa and Ben Griffin who tend to do a bit better. There’s less pressure to be perfect since there’s a certain level of “F it” that goes into each shot, and the guys who don’t have a monkey on their back and can go out and have fun with their caddie are going to play well. A guy like Griffin, who’s also been working hard on his driver accuracy, could have a great week if can avoid the trouble off the tee. Max has been playing solid golf, and his attitude toward the game right now could be a big help in making sure he goes with the ebbs and flows of the conditions that this week creates.

Jessica Marksbury, senior editor (@jess_marksbury): As an avid reader of our betting expert Brady Kannon’s weekly column, I am in solid agreement with his picks and rationale this week. Kannon prioritized top performers in driving accuracy and approach, as well as putting on slow greens. His top prospects include Ludvig Aberg, Justin Rose, Collin Morikawa, Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim and Ben Griffin. Hard to argue with those names! I also agree with my colleagues’ assessment that Open Championship golf often requires a little different mentally. Players will need to appreciate the good breaks as well as accept — and quickly move on from — the bad.

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor (@JR_HIRSHey): I’m with Jake here, the winner is going to be someone who prioritizes feel over technical skill. When the course is as firm and bouncy as this one is going to be, that is the truest test of links golf. Sure the winds won’t be gusting at 30 or maybe even 20, but there’s still a level of unpredictability brought on by the firmness. These kinds of conditions mean judging the “weight” you need to play a shot with, not necessarily the carry distance, is going to be crucial. For that reason, I think the winner is someone who is going to play with more imagination and feel, rather than play a robotic point-to-point game. This is all setting up for an epic Open Championship week!

Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable): With 6-irons rolling out to 280 (so says Jon Rahm!), Big Lumber isn’t going to see limited action. Look for guys like Hovland, Adam Scott, Scheffler, Morikawa, Shane, et al., to shine. One or two misadventures in a pot bunker can undo a Claret Jug chase. Finders of fairways and greens will succeed.

Maddi MacClurg, game improvement editor (@maddimacclurg): I think patience and creativity are going to separate the contenders from the rest of the field. While precision matters and feel is important, that doesn’t mean much if you lose your head the first time this course kicks you in the teeth — and it will. Come Sunday, the player holding the Claret Jug will be the one who accepted the bad breaks, took their medicine when they had to and got creative when the moment demanded it. You also need a bit of imagination to score on links-style courses, and it’s something that can be faked. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone who grew up playing links golf, like Tommy Fleetwood or Matt Fitzpatrick, won this week.