“The green complexes there are extremely difficult.”
“The fairways are very generous.”
“It blows there pretty strong.”
By clicking on “2026 U.S. Open picks to win: Here’s who our staff is betting on at Shinnecock,” you’re expecting, of course, to learn whom we like this week at the year’s third men’s major, and you’ll find that below. But how we arrive at that is based a bit on what we hear — and we’ve heard some things from players who’ve previously made their way to the Long Island, N.Y., course.
The first three paragraphs of this story are some of what we’ve picked up — and below is more. As always, hopefully the thoughts, along with our selections, will assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
Said Scottie Scheffler: “I hadn’t been there prior. That was my first time on property. It was kind of what I expected. I had heard some rumors about how difficult the greens were. I was a little surprised at the width of the fairways, but the green complexes there are extremely difficult, and I think that’s where the greatest challenge comes from. The rough, also, was a really good penalty, I think, for the width. Once you start missing fairways out there, you have no chance. But the fairways are generous enough to where it provides you some opportunity and that way it’s just that the green complexes are extraordinarily difficult, and so they can put the pins wherever they want and make the scores as high as they could possibly want ’em to be.”
What to make of it: Wide fairways and difficult green complexes — so a player with fair length and a good approach game should succeed.
Said Rory McIlroy: “Shinnecock looks good. The fairways are very generous. They’re more generous than they were in 2018. But the first cut of rough is 5 inches long. So it’s like the first cut is maybe three paces wide and then it gets into the fescue. So if you miss the fairway even by a yard, you’re going to — but you shouldn’t. The fairways are very, very generous. So if you miss the fairway, I feel like you deserve a bad lie.
“And the greens are — it’s still quite green. … The greens are rolling around 11, 11.2, something like that. And I really don’t think they need to get much faster. I think if they can keep them at that green speed, they can get them firm, and they can use the hole locations that they want to use without having some of the struggles that they have had the last couple of U.S. Opens. So to me, it’s all about them just maintaining the green speeds really where they are and not getting them too out of hand, and I think it will be a great week. If it’s set up the right way, I think it’s one of the best championship tests in the country. I mean, it’s an amazing golf course.”
What to make of it: One of the best championship tests — so a grinder should do well.
Said J.J. Spaun: “It’s kind of like Oakmont. But I feel like any U.S. Open course you’re kind of like intimidated. But it was cool being on property. It’s pretty obvious that it blows there pretty strong. So I think understanding that it’s — you’re going to have to control trajectories and stuff is going to be a big deal around that place. But yeah, from what they said at the media thing, how the fairways are going to be pretty generous, they’re not going to try to trick it up, it’s going to be — Shinnecock’s going to be played how it should be or as it was intended to with the design.”
What to make of it: Strong winds — so a solid ball-striker should contend.
With that, here are our picks.
2026 U.S. Open picks to win
Alan Bastable
To-win: Cameron Young, +1,800. Just about all of the favorites — Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Ludvig — give me pause for one reason or another (spotty form, mostly) … except for one: Cameron Young. Chalk up the local(ish) boy for his first USO title.
Josh Berhow
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. It’s still early, but it could be a rainy — and more importantly, windy — few days on Long Island, which means I start to look at guys who have played well in Open Championships. That narrows it down to two names for me: Scottie Scheffler (last year’s Open winner) and Matt Fitzpatrick, who tied for fourth last year and has been one of the Tour’s three best players this season. That brings me to Scottie, who is due, and who wins to complete the career Grand Slam.
Adam Christensen
To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. This is more of a heart pick than a head pick, but he is up there for “best player without a major” status — and why not get one at a place where he shot the best round of his career? Fleetwood is an absolute flusher and he just flashed some form at the Memorial, which is enough for me to pick him heading to a place where a good approach game will be rewarded.
James Colgan
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I’ve thought about this. I’ve grinded on it. I’ve questioned the intelligence of picking the best player of the past five years to win the event he MOST wants to win while his game seems to be in the midst of a rare lull. It all seems a little bit too silly — too nonsensical to work out. But then I remember that Scottie’s entire career has been defined by his capacity to win anticlimactically. It’s pretty much what he does. And winning the career grand slam less than 12 months after setting up the dominoes for it — before any of us in the media can begin the long journey of questioning his competitive integrity or aura or “ability to win the big one?” It strikes me as too perfect NOT to happen. Add in the fact that Shinnecock has historically picked all-time winners, and I’m officially out of alternative options.
Jack Hirsh
To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. I had Scottie Scheffler penciled in here for the longest time, but while I think he’s still the undisputed No. 1 player in the world, his game isn’t as bulletproof as it once was. Instead I’m going to go with Fleetwood, who was a few strokes away from the playoff two weeks ago at the Memorial. He’s got the best short game on the PGA Tour this season and seems to have figured things out with a new putter. Not to mention, he nearly shot 62 here last time.
Jessica Marksbury
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I just can’t quit the World No. 1. Sure, he hasn’t had his “best stuff” of late — but his worst finish of the year was a tie for 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that was back in March. The U.S. Open is the game’s toughest test and Scottie has all the tools to win major No. 5 — and complete the career grand slam.
Maddi MacClurg
To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +2,500. To win at Shinnecock Hills, you need precision off the tee, elite ball-striking and the ability to scramble when greens are inevitably missed — all strengths for Fitzpatrick. If the putter gets hot, I think the Englishman will be in the mix on Sunday.
Zephyr Melton
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. Shinnecock will reward those who control their golf ball best, and no one on the planet is more skilled at that than Scottie Scheffler. Give him the career grand slam.
Jake Morrow
To-win: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Solid start to the year, has recently got some gear locked in, and with fairways being so friendly out there I think his potential issues with accuracy off the tee can be mitigated, allowing for some more aggressive approach play.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Wyndham Clark, +4,000. Let’s go with one of the hottest players in golf. If the fairways are indeed open, that benefits him, too.
Josh Schrock
To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. Finished second at Shinnecock in 2018, thanks to a blistering final round. Coming off a tie for fourth at the Memorial. Has the approach play and short game needed to hang on at Shinnecock. A lot of people will be looking at Tommy to win the Open when he goes home to Royal Birkdale, but he gets it done a month earlier and wins a proper U.S. Open test.
Johnny Wunder
To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The runner-up at the PGA was a sign that he’s still one of the elite big-game hunters in golf. Shinny requires elite ball striking and imagination around the greens — which he has in spades. If the putter even remotely shows up, nobody beats him.
